Determinants of the trade balance of the Libyan economy in the short and long run Econometric analytical
study for the period (1970-2013)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37376/jofer.v7i2.7803Keywords:
trade balance, cointegration, real GDP, real money supply, crude oil pricesAbstract
The research aimed to study some determinants of the trade balance of the Libyan economy for the period 1970-2013, represented in real GDP, real exchange rate, real total exports, real money supply, and crude oil prices, through the application of the ARDL method of Cointegration. The research found that real GDP, real exchange rate, real total exports, and crude oil prices lead to an improvement in the trade balance situation, while the real money supply leads to deterioration the trade balance. The results indicated that, the system corrects the imbalances caused by short-term movements at a speed of -1.8 for each shock. The model also has a high predictability of 0.035 by Thiel's inequality coefficient.
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